India is likely to grow by 7.5 per cent in the first quarter of the current financial year, driven by rising aggregate demand and non-food spending in the rural economy, according to an article in the RBI's May Bulletin released on Tuesday. The Indian economy has demonstrated marked resilience in the face of geopolitical headwinds impacting the supply chain, said an article on the state of the economy published in the May Bulletin.
Inflation shot up by 0.1 per cent to over 41-month high of 7.61 per cent week ended July 31, mainly due to surge in prices of fruit and vegetables, edible oil and other manufactured products.
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Observing that the prime reason for these losses was high fuel cost which constituted almost 40-50 per cent of an airline's total costs, Civil Aviation Minister Ajit Singh said the aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices were high due to rising base price and "very high VAT imposed by state governments."
Reliance Industries Ltd, India's most valuable company, is back on a growth path after six months of challenges as it posted better than expected earnings in the December quarter, brokerages said.
The government on Tuesday announced a Rs 200 per cylinder cut in prices of domestic cooking gas as it looked to counter the cheaper LPG promise of the Congress in upcoming assembly elections in states like Madhya Pradesh.
India's manufacturing sector activities improved in September as companies benefited from strengthening demand conditions amid the easing of COVID-19 restrictions, a monthly survey said on Friday. The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) improved from 52.3 in August to 53.7 in September, indicating a stronger expansion in overall business conditions across the sector. The September PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the third straight month. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
Fiscal pressure for the Indian economy is gradually rising, suggested analysts at Jefferies in a recent note, as oil prices (Brent) - which are close to the $100 a barrel mark - continue to climb ahead of a busy election calendar. They added that the sharp rally in the equity markets during the last few months has made valuations costly. As a result, Jefferies expects the Indian markets to remain choppy in the near term.
BJP-ruled Maharashtra levies 46.52 per cent VAT (47.64 per cent in Mumbai) on petrol, the highest in the country.
'I wonder if they will keep it up after the elections.' 'I fear they'll start questioning eligibility -- income, age, bank accounts -- and eventually stop the scheme altogether.'
Low fuel prices to help oil marketing and refining sectors but upstream players will stay under pressure.
Realtors' body CREDAI on Monday said the cost of construction has gone up by 20-25 per cent, mainly during the last 45 days, due to steep rise in prices of raw materials like steel, and builders will be forced to increase property prices from next month by an average 10-15 per cent. CREDAI-MCHI, the Maharashtra chapter of CREDAI, demanded that the central as well as state governments consider giving relief to the industry by reducing stamp duty and GST rates, besides allowing input tax credit (ITC) to developers. The association said it would not advise member developers to stop construction works as of now, but if the price rise continues then builders would have no option but to halt works at project sites and defer purchase of raw materials.
CII opines that a global discussion on the crisis might help building stronger information netwrorks on consumption and production so that corrective measures can be taken across the globe to avert such a crisis. It also advised to develop global food management system under Food and Agricultural Organisation.
India's appetite for imported crude oil may wane in fiscal year (FY) 2023 from record levels in pre-pandemic 2019-20 fiscal as higher oil prices, a spillover from the conflict in Ukraine, and increasing use of biofuels affect domestic demand for petroleum products. Brent crude surged to a nine-year high, shy of a July 2008 record $147.50 a barrel, before declining to around $100 a barrel - but the volatility in commodity rates will slow global economic growth and use of fuels. Demand for all oil products may grow at only 2-3 per cent in FY23, slower than the current fiscal and nearly half the 5.5 per cent growth estimated by the petroleum ministry, according to industry officials.
In a bid to slash costs, Air India has hedged 10,000 barrels of jet fuel for its aircraft this month, four weeks after its Board gave a nod to the move.
Sri Lanka on Tuesday deployed military personnel at State-run petrol pumps to monitor and manage fuel distribution amidst a shortage that led to serpentine queues of consumers outside filling stations.
Petrol and diesel prices were on Wednesday hiked by 80 paise a litre each, taking the total increase in rates in the last nine days to Rs 5.60 per litre. Petrol in Delhi will now cost Rs 101.01 per litre as against Rs 100.21 previously while diesel rates have gone up from Rs 91.47 per litre to Rs 92.27 according to a price notification of state fuel retailers. Rates have been increased across the country and vary from state to state depending upon the incidence of local taxation.
'Investors looking at the next 6-12 months can be certain that the Fed will maintain its easing cycle, and we expect the overall environment to be conducive for fixed income investments for portfolio diversification.'
A 6-7 million tonnes shortfall in rice production due to a fall in paddy sowing area is likely to keep rice prices at elevated levels, adding to the inflationary pressure that the slowing economy is already grappling with. Elevated food prices, including that of cereals, had led to retail inflation reversing a three-month declining trend, to touch 7 per cent in August. Similarly, the wholesale price inflation, which declined to 11-month low, also showed price pressures from cereals resulting from wheat output being impacted by severe heat waves in some parts of the country.
Reliance Industries Ltd, India's most valuable company, on Friday reported a 5 per cent drop in its June quarter net profit as lower fuel cracks and petrochemical margins outdid gains in telecom and retail businesses. The oil-to-retail-to-telecom conglomerate's consolidated net profit was at Rs 15,138 crore, or Rs 22.37 per share, in April-June -- the first quarter of the current 2023-24 fiscal year -- compared to Rs 16,011 crore, or Rs 23.66 a share, earnings a year back, according to a company's statement.
Indian airline industry is expecting to prune its net losses to Rs 3,000-5,000 crore in this fiscal from an estimated Rs 17,000-17,500 crore in FY2023 on the back of improved yields and stable cost environment, credit ratings agency ICRA said on Tuesday. At the same time, ICRA also estimated that domestic air passenger traffic will expand by 8-13 per cent each in FY2024 and FY2025. The rating agency has also maintained its stable outlook on the industry in view of healthy passenger traffic growth, improved yields and a stable cost environment.
The wholesale price-based inflation eased for the third consecutive month in August to 12.41 per cent, on softening in prices of manufactured items, even as food items saw an uptick. The Wholesale Price Index-based inflation was 13.93 per cent in July and 11.64 per cent in August last year. August is the 17th consecutive month of double-digit wholesale price inflation (WPI).
Reliance Industries Ltd on Friday reported a 9 per cent rise in its December quarter net profit as a planned maintenance-induced weakness in oil business earnings was offset by stability in retail and telecom verticals. The oil-to-retail-to-telecom conglomerate's consolidated net profit of Rs 17,265 crore, or Rs 25.52 per share, in October-December - the third quarter of the current 2023-24 fiscal - was 9.3 per cent higher than Rs 15,792 crore, or Rs 23.19 a share, earning a year back, according to a company statement. Quarter-on-quarter, the profit was lower when compared to Rs 17,394 crore earnings in the preceding three months ended September 30.
In a double delight, retail inflation eased to a one-year low of 5.72 per cent - staying below the upper tolerance limit for two months in a row, while factory output rose sharply to 7.2 per cent on the back of healthy growth in manufacturing. The retail inflation numbers based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) will provide some room for the Reserve Bank to further moderate the quantum of hike in key interest rate or even press a pause button. The RBI has been on a rate hiking spree since May 2022 in its bid to tame inflation, having raised the repo rate by a cumulative 225 basis points (bps).
The wholesale price-based inflation eased for the second consecutive month in January at 12.96 per cent, even though food prices hardened, the government said on Monday. WPI inflation has remained in double digits for the tenth consecutive month beginning April 2021. Inflation in December 2021 was 13.56 per cent, while in January 2021, it was 2.51 per cent.
With assembly polls in four crucial states in mind, the government has decided not to increase prices of cooking gas and kerosene for a year.
Brent crude oil prices have risen to about $116 a barrel from about $103 a barrel on July 1.
Hit by the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and soaring fuel prices, airlines are flying towards record losses with a likely loss of a whopping Rs 20,000 crore for the full fiscal year, warns a report. The airlines are flying towards their steepest-ever net loss of over Rs 20,000 crore this fiscal, which will be 44 per cent more than Rs 13,853 crore they bled last fiscal, Crisil said in a report. This will push back the industry's recovery beyond fiscal 2023, the report based on three large listed airlines--Indigo, Spicejet, and Air India--which together command 75 per cent of the domestic traffic, warned.
India's services sector growth quickened in June from May's five-month low, amid a stronger rise in new orders and an unprecedented expansion in international sales, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services Business Activity Index rose from 60.2 in May to 60.5 in June, pointing to a sharp expansion in output. In the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
Less-than-expected rainfall and a poor spatial distribution, experts say, can rekindle fears of a rise in food and fuel inflation that can have an impact on the RBI's monetary policy. The fear of less than optimal rainfall due to El Nino this year, analysts believe, is the biggest short-term risk for the markets, which they said has not been fully priced in yet by them. Monsoon set over Kerala on June 08, a week later than its scheduled date.
After some enforced slowdown in offtake during April-May 2024 due to elections, the cement sector is looking at a possible demand rebound which may help it to push up prices. The April'24 offtake was muted while May'24 saw some improvement with a likely 5-6 per cent rise in demand month-on-month (MoM). In June, some price hikes seem to have been taken, which suggests more sustained improvement in demand.
An average Indian spends no more than Rs 1.3 lakh per year, according to official statistics. This is close to what an average Indian earns annually. At this level of per capita income today, one litre of petrol costs one-third of an average Indian's daily income (Delhi prices), making it highly unaffordable. People in most other Asian and emerging countries find it more affordable.
The price of petrol was hiked to Rs 101.39 a litre in Delhi from Rs 101.19 and to Rs 107.47 per litre in Mumbai, according to a price notification of state-owned fuel retailers. Diesel rates went to Rs 89.57 a litre in Delhi and Rs 97.21 in Mumbai.
Vehicle sales across categories registered an increase of 5.03 per cent to 16,03,292 units from 15,26,514 units in November 2013.
India's industrial production contracted by 3.6 per cent in February, official data showed on Monday. According to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), manufacturing sector output declined by 3.7 per cent in February 2021. Retail inflation rose to 5.52 per cent in March, mainly on account of higher food prices, government data showed on Monday. The consumer price index (CPI) based retail inflation stood at 5.03 per cent in February.
State-owned fuel retailers IOC, BPCL and HPCL are likely to lose Rs 65,000 crore on selling diesel, domestic LPG and kerosene below cost during the current fiscal, Oil Minister Murli Deora said on Wednesday.
The Q2FY25 revenue for Coal India (CIL) was reported at Rs 30,700 crore (down 6 per cent year-on-year or Y-o-Y and 16 per cent sequentially). The blended average selling price was Rs 1,622/tonne (down 6 per cent Y-o-Y and 3 per cent quarter-on-quarter or Q-o-Q). Adjusted operating profit stood at Rs 7,200 crore (down 20 per cent Y-o-Y and 38 per cent Q-o-Q) due to lower-than-expected e-auction volumes and higher costs.
The policy review observed that the moderation in inflation, excluding food and fuel, that was witnessed in the first quarter of 2017-18 has "by and large, reversed".
Notwithstanding reports of a government-Bharatiya Janata Party thaw, Parliament was disrupted for the third consecutive day on Thursday over price rise and other issues with no signs of normalcy returning on Friday.
'If weak indicators persist, there is a risk that India could slip into a prolonged slowdown similar to the one experienced between 2014 and 2019,' warns Debashis Basu.
After the latest spike in crude oil prices, petrol prices could potentially go up to around Rs 90 a litre making a dent in the consumer's wallet. This, the analysts fear, will push the cost of vehicle ownership in the country, further reducing the demand potential for the industry.
